How Much Has Drought Stressed Illinois Crop Yields?

Drought conditions continue to persist across Illinois, raising questions about what corn and soybean yields will look like for the 2023 growing season.

“We’re butting up against 1988 for dry weather if you look at April to June rainfall,” says Matt Montgomery, field agronomist for Pioneer. “Some of your readers will remember 1988 and the pretty tough things that came with that year. We appear to be in uncomfortable droughty territory in many areas.”

Montgomery covers the western portion of the state, and some parts of his region have received sporadic rainfall. In other areas, like west of the Illinois River or portions of the Illinois River Valley, rainfall has been sparse. “Most of that area would need a good 3 inches to break the cycle they’re in right now — which is really difficult,” Montgomery says.

Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Ag says for the next few weeks, any substantial rain is unlikely.

“The rough news is that precipitation totals to finish June are not looking good,” Snodgrass says on June 21. “A full break in the drought is not coming in the next 10 to 20 days.”

Snodgrass explains that storm complexes in the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains, with lack of a strong Bermuda high-pressure system, are robbing Illinois of moisture.

“Despite El Niño forming, a ridge in Texas, and northwest jet stream flow — the lack of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. is limiting our chances of meaningful rain,” he says. “So, it rains all around us and we continually deal with weak jet stream winds and anomalously easterly winds.”

To change this pattern, it would take something dramatic like a hurricane or tropical storm.

“Unfortunately, it takes a lot to break a drought once it becomes established in spring and summer,” Snodgrass says. “That is not to say we couldn’t see the pattern improve and more storms return, but the deficits are substantial, and Illinois would need a consistent 1.5 inches per week to prevent significant yield loss over the next six to eight weeks.”





Source: farmprogress.com


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