Despite concerns over dry weather and drought conditions in June of 2023, the US produced a record corn crop of more than 15.3 billion bushels. However, average corn yield performance varied considerably across the US in 2023. Many counties achieved good to excellent yields relative to trend estimates, but other counties had yields well below trend.
Herein, we report recently released yields from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the USDA. NASS yields are not used in calculating payments from county-based insurance products or the Agriculture Risk Coverage at the county level (ARC-CO) program. However, NASS yields are highly correlated with the yields from RMA (Risk Management Agency) and FSA (Farm Service Agency) that will determine payments. NASS county yields suggest payments from area-based insurance, including the SCO (Supplemental Coverage Option) and ECO (Enhanced Coverage Option) programs, are likely for a number of counties for the 2023 corn crop. ARC-CO may trigger payments in a limited number of counties whose yields were significantly below trend.
2023 County Corn Yields NASS, an agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, recently released their survey-based county yield estimates for 2023 (see Figure 1). Counties in the green categories had 2023 yields above the national average of 177.3 bushels per acre. Counties in orange had yields below the national average. Yields above the national average were concentrated across the main Corn Belt region (central Nebraska, southern Minnesota, Iowa, the northern two-thirds of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio). The pattern of higher yields in these more highly productive regions is typical across years.
Discussion Widespread drought conditions in June of 2023 led to serious concerns over crop yield potential (see farmdoc daily from June 20, 2023). Drought conditions in 2023 peaked at the end of June, with 70% of corn producing areas considered to be in a drought as of June 27th. Five of the top corn producing states had 90% or more of their area classified in drought condition. Nebraska and Missouri had more than 25% of their area under extreme drought, while 18% of Kansas was in extreme drought. At the time, drought conditions across the Midwest generally exceeded those experienced at the same time in 2012, the most severe drought in terms of US crop yield impacts since the 1980s.
In contrast with 2012, when drought conditions continued to become more severe through the last half of the growing season, rainfall in July and August improved conditions throughout much of the major corn growing regions of the US in 2023. Anecdotal evidence from farmers during the 2023 harvest suggested wide yield variability but the consensus seemed to be that yield numbers were better than would have been expected given the dry weather through the first half of the growing season.
The NASS corn yield data for 2023 largely confirms the anecdotes from the harvest season. While many areas did see major yield reductions, likely associated with dry conditions, there were also areas with excellent yields.
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Categories: Illinois, Crops, Corn