Scientists from the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) are forecasting a reduced "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico for the upcoming summer. This area, characterized by low to no oxygen levels that endanger marine life, is estimated to cover approximately 4,115 square miles. This size is significantly smaller than the 36-year average of 5,364 square miles. The prediction is based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding river-flow and nutrient levels.
The size of the Gulf's dead zone during the summer depends on the discharge and nutrient loading in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, particularly in May. This year, both river discharge and nutrient loads were below their long-term averages. The Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers experienced discharge levels about 33% lower than the 1980-2022 average, while nitrate and phosphorus loads were approximately 42% and 5% below their respective long-term averages.
Excess nutrients entering the Gulf stimulate the growth of algae, which eventually die and consume oxygen as they decompose, leading to the creation of the dead zone. The negative consequences extend to commercial and recreational fisheries, posing economic risks.
NOAA issues an annual dead zone forecast, which helps guide nutrient reduction targets and enhance understanding of the hypoxia-nutrient connection. A monitoring survey supported by NCCOS will be conducted in late July to validate the forecast's accuracy.
The NCCOS forecast is the result of a multi-year collaboration among academic and federal partners, and it combines the models developed by teams from several universities. NOAA and its partners are continually working on improving hypoxia forecast capabilities, including an experimental model to track shrimp relative to the hypoxic zone.
The University of Illinois Extension actively participates in implementing the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Strategy in partnership with the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and Illinois Department of Agriculture. This strategy aligns with the goals outlined in the U.S. EPA Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan, alongside initiatives from 11 other states.
Photo Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Categories: Illinois, General