By Andi Anderson
U.S. farmers are maintaining cautious optimism about the agricultural economy even as support for tariffs and confidence in near-term conditions decline.
According to a recent survey conducted by Purdue University and the CME Group, the Ag Economy Barometer Index rose slightly to 126 in September after three months of decline.
While overall sentiment held steady, farmers expressed differing views about present and future conditions. The Index of Current Conditions dropped by seven points to 122, indicating concern over high input costs and declining crop prices.
However, the Index of Future Expectations climbed by five points to 128, showing optimism about policy direction and potential government support programs.
Survey responses followed the release of the USDA’s September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. Farmers noted pressure from record-high corn and soybean yields, which continue to weigh on commodity prices.
Michael Langemeier, principal investigator of the barometer, explained that “high production costs and weak crop prices are pressuring farm incomes,” adding that most farmers anticipate federal assistance if conditions remain weak.
Confidence in tariffs as a tool to strengthen the farm economy has also slipped for the second consecutive month. Only 51% of producers now believe tariffs will have a positive long-term effect, compared to 70% earlier this year. Meanwhile, 30% expect tariffs to harm agriculture, and 19% remain unsure—nearly double the uncertainty reported in spring.
Despite these concerns, 83% of respondents said a program similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program would likely be introduced if trade issues depress prices further.
Farmland values, meanwhile, are expected to remain mostly unchanged. The Short-Term Farmland Values Expectations Index fell six points to 106, marking the fourth straight monthly decline.
About 58% of producers now expect land values to stay steady over the next year, reflecting a cautious but stable outlook for U.S. agriculture.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-alexeyrumyantsev
Categories: Illinois, Government & Policy