By Jamie Martin
The U.S. chicken industry has enjoyed decades of steady growth, supported by rising consumer demand and major improvements in broiler production efficiency. While short-term prospects remain positive, new structural challenges may affect the industry’s ability to sustain growth over the long term.
A recent analysis from CoBank Knowledge Exchange shows that broiler output remains strong, but expansion opportunities are narrowing. The construction of new processing plants has slowed due to higher capital costs, limited labor availability, and tighter local regulations. These factors restrict the industry’s ability to add new processing capacity.
At the same time, chick supply has declined. Broiler genetics have shifted toward higher meat yield and improved feed efficiency rather than hatchability. This has allowed producers to generate more meat from fewer birds, but it also reduces the number of chicks available for production. Reversing this genetic trend would take several years, making short-term solutions difficult.
Consumer demand for chicken remains robust. According to USDA, annual per capita chicken consumption continues to rise and is projected to increase further by 2030. Chicken now far exceeds beef and pork consumption in the United States.
To meet demand, processors have expanded investment in value-added products such as nuggets, tenders, and ready-to-eat items. These products rely on larger birds and advanced processing systems.
“The potential long-term challenge becomes how big is too big for birds on the processing line, and what will drive consumer preferences for chicken products into 2030 and beyond,” said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank.
“In the short-term, there has been a growing interest in secondary processing or the value-add segment. That’s helping chicken producers meet increased consumer demand for further processed and flavor-enhanced items like tenders, nuggets and sandwiches. But it’s not necessarily a sustainable or long-term approach to consistently increase overall production volume,” said Earnest.
However, industry experts caution that increasing bird size and processing speed has practical limits. Future growth will depend on balancing efficiency, consumer preferences, and system flexibility. While the industry remains strong today, long-term growth will require careful planning and innovation to overcome current constraints.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-branex
Categories: National