Mid-July Rains for the Southern and Eastern Corn Belt

The latest Crop Progress report released by the USDA on Monday shows a clear picture of the lack of moisture and its effects on crops in the heart of the Corn Belt.

Illinois has 39% of its corn crop rated in good or excellent condition for the week ending July 9. Meanwhile, Missouri's corn condition ratings show an even worse rank, with only 25% of its corn crop rated in good or excellent condition. While both states have seen sporadic rain showers and thunderstorm complexes roll through in the past few weeks, the adequate subsoil moisture is not widespread. Forecast rainfall through July 15 paints a more promising picture, where some improvements to soil moisture could be seen in areas across the southern and eastern Corn Belt.

A trough in south-central Canada is causing the active weather pattern across the north-central United States this week. On both sides of this Canadian trough sit two ridges, one extending across the Canadian Rockies to the west, and the other parallels the east coast of Canada. These two ridges are blocking the trough from advancing east and the only way for this trough to advance east is for the ridge in eastern Canada to weaken. Therefore, this trough is forecast to park itself in south-central Canada into the upcoming weekend before it will finally start to shift east early next week as the ridge in eastern Canada loses strength.

The Canadian trough is the main reason why there will be multiple chances for rain into this weekend across the Corn Belt. A cold front from a low-pressure system that has been rotating around the trough has led to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. This cold front will drop south on Wednesday and lead to shower and storm development across the southern and eastern Corn Belt. In addition to this cold front, a low-pressure system from the Intermountain West will form along the front and provide more moisture to the southern and eastern Corn Belt late this week and into early this weekend.


Source: dtnpf.com
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