U.S. Farmer Sentiment Declines to Yearly Low in August

By Andi Anderson

United States farmer sentiment declined for the third consecutive month in August, falling to its lowest level in a year. According to the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, farmers expressed growing concerns about future financial performance, with crop producers showing much less optimism compared to livestock producers.

The disparity reflects profitability trends across agriculture. Beef cattle operations are currently experiencing record returns, driven by the smallest cattle inventory since 1951 and record cattle prices.

By contrast, crop producers face falling prices that stand below production costs, weakening profit outlooks for 2025.

World Grain’s Arvin Donley reported that the Farm Financial Performance Index remained weak at 91 in August, barely changed from July’s value.

USDA projections in its August Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast a seasonal average corn price of $3.90 per bushel and soybeans at $10.10 per bushel. Both levels are below break-even prices for many US farms, explaining why more producers expect lower incomes.

Despite financial strain, the Farm Capital Investment Index rose eight points from July to 61, supported by a more positive outlook among livestock producers. Still, concerns about farm debt grew sharper.

The August survey found 22% of producers expect their 2026 operating loan to be larger than in 2025, up from 18% in January. Among these, 23% cited the need to carry over unpaid operating debt, highlighting rising financial stress.

Michael Langemeier, principal investigator of the barometer, noted that “the percentage of farmers citing expectations for rising operating debt because of unpaid operating debt carrying over from the previous year could signal increasing farm financial stress in production agriculture.”

While farmland value expectations remain somewhat stable, the results suggest crop producers face heightened uncertainty, while livestock operations continue to cushion broader declines in farm sentiment.

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