A recent study conducted by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign unveils concerning implications for Illinois' agricultural landscape due to future climate change. The research reveals that while winter cover crops have the potential to reduce nitrogen pollution in agricultural drainage water by up to 30%, their effectiveness will diminish under changing climate conditions. The study also predicts a significant decline in corn yields compared to soybean yields, particularly in southern regions.
Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model, researchers simulated various climate scenarios and estimated the growth of cereal rye, corn, and soybean in both the near-term (2021-2040) and far-term (2041-2060). The findings indicate that corn yield is projected to decrease across most regions and timeframes, while soybean yield is expected to increase.
Nitrogen loss in agricultural systems is expected to worsen as warmer soil enhances microbial activity, leading to higher nitrate levels and increased potential for nutrient loss. Although cover crops traditionally help mitigate nitrogen loss, the study suggests that their efficiency will decrease in the face of climate change.
The analysis does not reveal a yield penalty for growing cover crops, implying that any decline in cash crop yield is primarily attributed to the changing climate rather than cover crop presence.
The study emphasizes the need for farmers to adopt additional best management practices to counterbalance the diminishing effectiveness of cover crops and achieve nutrient loss reduction goals amidst the challenges posed by a changing climate.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-mvburling
Categories: Illinois, Crops, Corn